Well, we did not get all the answers that we wanted in today's return to play announcement for the OHL season but we got structure, hope for a season, dates to potentially look forward to , some questions answered and a whole bunch yet to be answered.
Recently a number of leagues started to dip their toe into the churning unpredictable waters that 2020 has presented to us. Mostly these leagues followed the lead by aligning themselves with the NHL's December 1 start to the 2020-2021 season promising either a December 1 start (BCHL, OHL), a December 4th start (AHL, or ECHL). The WHL, with it's vast travel in both Canada and the United States have yet to make an announcement and we have an outlier in the QMJHL who have looked to get going on October 1st, ambitious to say the least. For the purpose of this writing, we will stick to the OHL.
The OHL's return to play features a 64 game schedule that kicks off December 1 and ends on April 29th. Playoffs would be played in May and June and the Memorial Cup would be played in either Oshawa or Sault Ste Marie June 17-27. That was in a release sent by the OHL. What was not in the release but expected to come to fruition is the heavy focus on divisional or conference play and that the first two rounds of the playoffs will be best of five rather than best of seven. All of the above are sound sensible return to play protocol or suggestions. Overnight travel needs to be minimized, if not completely eradicated for this year. Travel to the U.S. is a whole other issue, and the border is not likely to be opened anytime soon. What to do with the U.S. teams remains the biggest conundrum that the OHL faces. Given that the U.S. based teams are largely comprised of Canadians it makes sense to temporarily house those teams in Canada until things settle down in the US. This of course features a whole other set of infrastructure issues centered around temporarily housing a whole team in Canada. The owners of Saginaw, Erie and Flint also will not be happy at seeing anything resembling meaningful revenue disappear with no games in their arena, and I'm not sure fans, likely already strapped for discretionary income will rush to see neutral site U.S. based teams play in their arena. The OHL, by buying time, is hoping that COVID-19 is managed better in the U.S. in order to facilitate some sort of border opening. I'll leave commentary about the current president and his handling of the pandemic for another time as this is a family blog.
The real issues, which won't be a surprise given the impact of COVID-19, are financial ones. The excellent Sunaya Sapurji has a Twitter thread on finances that explain things much better than I ever could here. https://twitter.com/sunayas/status/1291079918516932611
To sum it up , ticket revenues are a large revenue generator with 70% of revenue derived from putting butts in seats or private boxes. While the NHL, NBA, or MLB can afford to run their leagues temporarily without fans (and lets be frank- teams are losing a lot of money here), the OHL simply can't operate for any length of time without fans. Even at 30 or 50% capacity financial baths will be taken by many teams. While OHL owners have wealth, it's not unlimited and many don't make a ton of money even at full capacity. My prediction and suggestion would be for the OHL to offer 50% capacity because there is no guarantee that 50 % capacity is reached. I've been around enough venues, restaurants and stores to conclude that there is a great reluctance for people to sit indoors for any length of time. Restaurants and stores have far less traffic in them than pre pandemic, from what I have seen. This is where I go rogue for a bit and maybe deviate from conventional wisdom. I've been a proponent of allowing a minimal amount of fans in venues right now. NHL, MLB, NBA etc should all be allowed SOME fans, in my opinion. Before I go any further, I should add that I'm not a far right wing anti mask, anti vaxxer , COVID denying lunatic. There will not be viral videos in which I angrily denounce masks as an infringement of my rights. Nor will I support the "Karens" or her male counterpart. I firmly believe in mandatory masks and see masked people at a far reduced capacity in a venue to be relatively safe. Tickets available can take into consideration all measures of physical distancing. It sucks to leave money on the table but the times we live in have meant that businesses of all sizes have taken a financial bath. Plus, I'm all about getting people back to work and having a crowd at a game puts game day workers back on the clock and provides an economical boost. That's just me. I have no right to speak about others comfort level inside a venue with a significant amount of people. Many people, as is their prerogative, have expressed reticence at being indoors with people in any sort of crowd.
Another rather large question to consider are the players themselves and the type of schedule they will keep. Billeting, busing, practice time and education are all things that need to be viewed in a vastly different lens than pre pandemic. I like the idea of divisional/conference play and the virtual elimination of overnight trips. It's not easy to do in a league that stretches from Windsor to Ottawa to Sault Ste Marie. That said the travel is still more bearable than what the Q and the WHL will face in which double digit hour bus trips are the norm rather than the exception. Will the OHL shuffle the conferences and divisions like the QMJHL to reflect geography? It remains to be seen but I think they will keep it the same and just change the amount of games against a geographical rival. Niagara and Hamilton, Kitchener and Guelph, Oshawa and Peterborough, Sudbury and Barrie and London v Sarnia/Windsor will all get awfully familiar with one and other just to name a few geographical partners.
The OHL has decided a "steady she goes" approach to return to play so far. It's manageable, answers some questions, but leaves others to be answered. More, I'm sure , will be unveiled in the weeks to come and any schedule that comes out will likely be perused with a keen eye as to whether or not is fair to a team in terms of distance. The questions people have are not easily answered . When you talk about teams crossing the border, you are talking big picture questions that transcend sports. When you talk about player safety, it's a far greater issue because you are talking about players aged 16-20 years old, not older professionals. An outbreak or a second wave has to be under consideration as well. The next steps the league takes will be closely scrutinized.
Steve Clark
Steve has called Niagara IceDogs games on TV for 12 years and has filled in on broadcasts in Hamilton, Mississauga, Barrie and Sarnia.
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